Working Papers

Examining Heterogeneity in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Benefit Cycle - Job Market Paper [Draft Available Upon Request]

A Flexible Model of Food Security: Estimation and Implications for Prediction (with Will Davis, Rusty Tchernis, and Christian A. Gregory) [Revise and Re-submit at the American Journal of Agricultural Economics ]

Abstract: We propose a novel Bayesian Graded Response Model (BGRM) for food security measurement. Our BGRM has several attractive features. It produces continuous food security estimates and measures of estimation uncertainty at the household level. Unlike the USDA’s official measurement model, the BGRM can be used with binary and polytomous items. We further modify our BGRM to include any combination of binary, ordered polytomous, and continuous variables. With data from the 2017-18 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we estimate our BGRM for responses to the 10 adult core Food Security Module (FSM) questions. We find substantial uncertainty in household-level estimates, emphasizing the inherent uncertainty of latent trait estimation. We observe overlap in BGRM estimates across USDA-defined food security categories and significant variation within categories. We estimate our model using Current Population Survey (CPS) data as a robustness check. CPS results are qualitatively similar to those from the NHANES, highlighting possible implications for national USDA food security estimates. We explore the BGRM's ability to explain variations in health outcomes associated with food security and compare results to those produced using standard USDA category definitions. Finally, we demonstrate the BGRM's flexibility by incorporating an additional continuous variable, the Healthy Eating Index (HEI), into the model, capturing nutrition quality and food security information in a novel latent construct. The adaptability of our BGRM positions it as a versatile tool for measuring food security and other latent traits requiring a diverse range of variable types like nutrition security. 

Works in Progress 

Economic Conditions and Teenage Substance Use 

Abstract: This  research examines how macroeconomic conditions affect teenage marijuana, cigarette and alcohol use. The findings are based on state and year fixed effects models, using state-level data from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, spanning 1991-2019. In contrast to the recent literature, I find no statistically significant evidence of a relationship between economic conditions and teenage marijuana use. I discover the same pattern for cigarette use, which is consistent with results in the literature. Finally, I find evidence of a pattern of counter-cyclical alcohol use among teenagers, also consistent with results in the literature. My results suggest that policymakers must consider the consequences of changes in funding of substance use programs, aimed at teenagers, during stressful economic times.  

Benefit Redemption Patterns in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in Georgia